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Press Release
FUND MANAGER PREDICTS BOND BUBBLE WILL BURST
SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., Jun. 4, 2003-Ian Fraley, general partner of the Financia Global Focus Fund L.P. predicted in a private newsletter to investors that U.S. Treasury securities are in the final stages of a bull market that is similar in nature to that of the U.S. stock market in late 1999 and early 2000. Although Mr. Fraley acknowledges that bonds might rise even higher in the short-term, he is now urging investors to take profits and avoid the risks of a steep decline in prices that he believes will begin in the next six to twelve months. Unlike many pundits, Mr. Fraley hereto has not been bearish on bonds, but escalating concerns about deflation and rising complacency among bond analysts and investors has caused his outlook to change.
"Today bond investors are allocating huge sums to Treasury securities on the back of strong returns and a new monetary paradigm of deflation, in the same manner that people threw money into technology stocks in 1999 on the basis of strong stock performance and a "new economy" paradigm. As a result, Treasury yields have plummeted to a 45-year lows, and previously-skeptical professionals are becoming less worried about an impending bond market decline," stated Mr. Fraley. "But they should be very worried - continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, which increases import prices, combined with the Fed's newfound commitment to fighting deflation, makes the onset of deflation exceedingly unlikely. To be blunt, investors who believe bonds are a safe haven are in for a very rude awakening when deflation fears turn out to be overblown, as were the promises of the so-called 'New Economy'."
In the context of the current monetary and fiscal policy environment, and given the fact that stocks have posted an average annual return of 23 percent during periods of mild deflation, and 17.5 percent in periods of mild inflation, Mr. Fraley is urging investors to take profits on bonds and reallocate into stocks. For fixed-income portfolios, Mr. Fraley is recommending significant allocations to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Although historically stocks have performed well in environments of mild inflation, even a mild increase in inflation could prove devastating to bond investors.
About Financia Capital:
Financia Capital, LLC is a San Francisco-based Registered Investment Adviser. Financia Capital serves as the general partner for the Financia Global Focus Fund L.P., a global macro private investment partnership offering sophisticated, qualified investors an alternative to traditional investments. For investors seeking portfolios tailored to specific capital appreciation, income generation, and risk management objectives, Financia Capital offers separately managed accounts. The firm follows a theme rotation, market-timing investment strategy, utilizing Contrarian Gap Analysis™, fundamental macro-analysis and technical analysis. Ian Fraley is the CEO and managing principal of Financia Capital. Mr. Fraley has been a member of The Executive Committee (TEC) , an international organization of CEOs, since 1998, and he holds a Bachelor of Arts degree magna cum laude in American History from Harvard University and the series 3 and 65 securities licenses. Stephen Brennan, Chief Investment Officer and principal, holds a bachelor's degree in Political Economy from the University of California at Berkeley and a series 65 license. Mr. Brennan is the 'Market Watch' columnist for Semiconductor Magazine.
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